michael ignatieff Archives - Page 32 of 40

Liberal leadership race heats up

In my last post, I speculated that New Brunswick Liberal MP (and son of a former Governor General) Dominic LeBlanc would throw his hat into the ring for leadership of the Liberal Party. Today, LeBlanc became the first MP to announce his intentions to seek the leadership running between Ignatieff on the relative right and Rae on the left of the party.

I’ve learned some other details about who might back a LeBlanc bid for leadership. I suggested yesterday that a Martin adviser such as Steve MacKinnon would back LeBlanc. With McKenna expected to remain outside of the race, I mused that MacKinnon may go LeBlanc. However, I’ve learned today that the former national director of the Liberal Party will likely back Ignatieff while communications gurus from Paul Martin’s PMO such as Scott Reid and Tim Murphy will be more likely to back the New Brunswick MP while a Liberal insider I spoke to expects John Duffy to go with Rae.

If Ujjal Dosanjh enters the race (if he survives a putative court challenge for a recount), he is expected to do so for the purpose of gathering BC delegates for Bob Rae.

Conservatives and New Democrats I have spoken with have previously feared a bid by Bob Rae. Conservatives believe that Rae will unite and polarize the left while the NDP fears massive hemorrhaging of their membership for Rae. Recently, however, Conservatives are more bullish on their future against a Rae-led Liberal Party as the Global Economic Crisis has severely diminished Rae’s futures on the leadership market. Conservatives would easily remind Canadians of Bob Rae’s tenure during Ontario’s last economic recession and would make the case that Rae days would soon return.

As for second tier candidates, Ruby Dhalla is considering a bid. Sources of mine in Brampton–Springdale have told me that even during the election (before the knives were in Dion’s back), Dhalla told Punjabi language radio that she would be running for the Liberal leadership. Dhalla is seen to be on the right-flank of the Liberal Party and backed Ignatieff’s bid during the 2006 leadership race so unless her candidacy caches fire, she may be building proxy support for the other Liberal professor.

Woe for my love of a great comedy, Justin Trudeau is not expected to jump into the leadership race. Indeed, the son of the former Liberal Prime Minister has not yet got his feet wet in the House of Commons. Trudeau is expected to back LeBlanc as the current standard-bearer of the next generation of Liberal leaders. Trudeau backed former Ontario-cabinet minister Gerard Kennedy for leadership in 2006. Kennedy is testing the waters for entry into this contest, however, many believe that as Dion’s kingmaker, Kennedy may sit this one out to put some time between this aberration and his ambition.

Yesterday, former Chretien finance minister John Manley tested the waters in a most self-deprecating way but found none to dive into as he metaphorically suggested. The author of the Harper-initiated Manley Report was seen by many Liberals as betrayal to a weakened, embarrassed and voiceless party on the opposition benches. Manley may find redemption in his party by organizing for a front-running candidate and this would have the benefit of keeping his name in the minds of Liberal partisans.

Ironically, Dion’s election as Liberal leader may see more longshots enter this race. Ambitious Liberals with at least an ounce of name recognition may see a divided field and plan a run up the middle. LeBlanc’s entry into the race gains credibility because he is first to announce. Others may see that LeBlanc is planning a Dion-like charge up the middle as Dion had done and work to position themselves as a more palatable consensus candidate. Ottawa politicos are guessing that the field of candidates will be necessarily narrow due to a shallow and parched pool of donors. Since leadership contenders can carry previous debts into the next Liberal race, the Liberal base will again be tapped for sparse cash from not only the next crop making the case to be the Liberal Party’s next PM, but from those that are resume building and those paying down old debts during an economic crisis.

UPDATE: Ruby Dhalla’s office contacted me and they would like you to know that Ruby Dhalla did not state that she was running for leader on Punjabi radio. So, for now it’s a matter of she said vs. they said. (UPDATE: I’m now concluding that these Brampton–Springdale sources are likely inaccurate. My sincere apologies to Ruby Dhalla on this point.) Also, Dhalla’s office wants everyone to know that the image above is doctored and that Dr. Dhalla did not pose for the photo. They asked that I remove it. However, I will not comply as the image is obviously satire.

To the McGuintys is Dion a four letter word in Ottawa South?

Ottawa South is the federal riding of David McGuinty and the provincial riding of his brother, the Premier of Ontario.

On Monday, the Liberal Premier of Ontario Dalton McGuinty refused to endorse the federal Liberal leader Stephane Dion and even passed on endorsing the man’s key policy plank. From the Toronto Star,

McGuinty vowed to remain neutral other than campaigning with his brother, Liberal incumbent David McGuinty (Ottawa South).

While McGuinty said his aides would be allowed to help federal Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion “on their own time,” he took a veiled shot at the federal party’s Green Shift carbon-emission reduction program, which would tax fossil fuel consumption in exchange for income and corporate tax cuts. “I’ve got my own particular approach when it comes to dealing with carbon emissions. We believe in a cap-and-trade system.”

David McGuinty is Stephane Dion’s shadow minister of the environment. However, at the time of this writing, on his campaign website you will david-mcguinty of Dion’s showcase policy, the Green Shift. The younger brother of the Premier also supported Michael Ignatieff during the leadership race and praised him for wanting to put a price on carbon, essentially what Dion is proposing by using the taxation powers of the federal government. So why no mention of the Green Shift by Dion’s Green Lieutenant in Parliament?

Though David has eyed running for leadership of the federal party in the past, it is his brother Dalton who may be positioning himself for a run for the top Liberal job in the country (until recently that used to also almost always include the job of PM itself — it comes with a bonus and a drafty house). Dalton McGuinty is the first Liberal in Ontario to win back-to-back majority governments in 70 years and before the economy slips and as Ontario flirts dangerously with have-not status, Dalton may be looking to upgrade. As a Liberal with governing experience he would provide solid competition but clearer red-orange contrast to the presumed Liberal front-runner post-Dion, the former NDP Premier of Ontario Bob Rae. After years of government at Queen’s Park, McGuinty would also bring a solid camp of support to a future leadership race against the numbers that are grouping behind Rae.

So are the McGuintys looking to run their own campaign to Dump Dion? Though still winnable by Conservatives if they get out the vote with their candidate Elie Salibi (a Lebanese Canadian with solid community support), Ottawa South is considered safe by Liberal strategists. The McGuintys may be looking to give their 1% effort for Stephane Dion while setting up brother Dalton for a shot at the PMO.

Michael Ignatieff admits debt delinquency

Michael Ignatieff just sent me an email:

Dear Friends,

Over an eight month campaign for the leadership of our party in 2006, in the second biggest country in the world, I spent a little over $2million dollars. Barack Obama spends that amount on his national campaign every day! So I feel – as do all the leadership candidates – that we gave the party and the country a great race, at a very competitive price.

We raised the money on the old rules limiting donations to $5400.00. Now we’re repaying debt following the new rules, which limit contributions to $1100. So it hasn’t been easy, but we’re getting there.

I’ve held fund-raisers across the country and I’m incredibly grateful to all the generous people who contributed sums large and small to enable me to pay off my debt, and to the campaign workers and suppliers who put their faith in me as a candidate. I’ve also raised money for Liberal candidates and MP’s right across the country, as have the other leadership candidates.

My debt started at about $800,000. On June 3, when Elections Canada requires all of the leadership candidates to file returns, I will be reporting the significant progress that I have made with your help. I don’t quite know where I’ll be on that day – some contributions are still in the pipeline or are being processed by the party – but I will not be fully paid off by the deadline. I am within striking distance and expect to pay off the debt completely by the end of the summer.

So, dear friends, if you have not given your maximum of $1100 and still have a generous thought towards me or the other candidates, think of contributing online. Any amount large and small would be appreciated, and remember that you are helping us to keep our promises to all the people who put their faith in us and the party.

Thank you,

Michael

The email ends with a couple of links to his donation page.

What will be the consequences for Michael Ignatieff?

Will Elections Canada provide special treatment for Liberals that run afoul of its rules?

If so, what are the broader consequences for the Conservative Party’s argument that the government body is biased against them?

How much does Ignatieff owe?

Does this indicate that the Conservatives are better at raising money from their membership than the Liberals are? Why are Liberal members disengaged? Why aren’t Liberals giving?