justin trudeau Archives - Stephen Taylor

Mapping the results of the 2025 Canadian Federal Election

Yes, it’s finally here. I’ve generated the maps for the 2025 federal election wherein Mark Carney’s Liberal Party elected enough MPs to form a minority Parliament defeating Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives in a stunning upset that was precipitated by Trump tariffs and the sudden departure of Justin Trudeau from Liberal leadership and the Prime Minister’s Office.

This resource has the national, riding, and polling-level results and is highly interactive and educational. Wow!

Canada: economically depressed but elbows up — 2025 Canadian General election results – National map

It’s no small task assembling spreadsheet data for 343 ridings and tens of thousands of polling divisions from Elections Canada with GIS data from Natural Resources Canada. Over the years, I’ve written quite a few NodeJS scripts and assembled quite a database which has survived the move between computers, cities, and cloud companies.

Enter the new era of AI.

Adapting old scripts to new data (and new ridings) was made into a task of hours instead of days in order to produce our maps. So please be my guest! Take a look at the vector maps that defined the 2025 Canadian federal election. Zoom in to a riding map to reveal poll-by-poll resolution to find out how your neighbours voted, or appreciate the gradients of partisan support that exist across economically diverse electoral districts.

My blog’s been a bit sleepy for a few years now and every once and a while I check in on what people are searching in order to arrive at stephentaylor.ca. The maps have certainly taken over long-tail search. There are 343 ridings now, after all.

Let’s take a closer look.

Mark Carney formed government winning 169 seats, falling just short of a majority government. He contested and won the riding of Nepean.

Nepean - 2025 Candian General Election — Nepean election results – 2025 Candian General Election

Next door in Carleton, Pierre Poilievre suffered a loss of his own riding that he had held for over 20 years.

Carelton results - 2025 Canadian General Election — Carelton election results – 2025 Canadian General Election

Though managing to increase the Conservative seat total in the 2025 Canadian general election to 144 seats, this long was particularly painful on election night. Poilievre would later go on and contest Battle-River–Crowfoot after the Conservative victor on election night, Damien Kurek, stepped aside for the party boss.

Battle River—Crowfoot results - 2025 Canadian General Election — Battle River—Crowfoot election results – 2025 Canadian General Election

Poilievre wasn’t the only federal leader to lose their seat on election night. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh led his party to its worse result since the party’s founding in 1961.

Until I took a closer look when writing this post, I hadn’t realized he’d lost every poll in his riding of Burnaby Central except for one.

Burnaby Central results - 2025 Canadian General Election — Burnaby Central election results – 2025 Canadian General Election

Justin Trudeau was a deeply unpopular leader who was propped up by Singh’s party who feared a profound election defeat. It turned out that when Trudeau left, Singh was left representing the era he helped defined – and Canadians punished the NDP. Historians will note that Singh didn’t just lose votes to the Liberals but a large chunk of his coalition voted Conservative in 2025. Indeed, parts of Windsor – like Windsor West – went blue for the first time.

Windsor West results - 2025 Candian General Election — Windsor West election results – 2025 Candian General Election

Conservatives predict that we’ll be into an election again soon enough. Carney will want to take advantage of a Conservative Party that is doing some soul-searching and feet-finding while the Trump uncertainty still exists over tariffs and the broader economy. Carney also sees himself as the international deal-maker. Those deals have yet to come to fruition but setting his travel schedule according to the Parliamentary and his government’s razor thin advantage there is going to get old soon for him if it hasn’t already.

Intelligence whistleblower publishes op-ed on election interference

In case you’ve been living under a rock – or locked up in a re-education centre – the Canadian political establishment has been rocked by revelations from both the Globe and Mail and Global News regarding interference in Canadian elections by the Communist Party of China.

This afternoon in the Globe, the whistleblower that formed the “backbone” of this reveal (according to an attached note from Editor-in-Chief David Walmsley) penned an op-ed explaining why they did this and what’s at stake.

Respecting the subscriber paywall, I’ll just report on the news of this op-ed (do subscribe to the Globe and Mail).

First, the whistleblower is a Liberal voter and hopes to vote Liberal again in the future. This will be an interesting point to some, as a standard (weak) defence against the facts is the allegation of partisanship. These leaks have been damaging for Justin Trudeau’s government first-and-foremost, so this will clarify some of the waters which have been muddied in the defence of the Prime Minister.

From the op-ed, we learned that the leaks were instigated as a result of inaction by supervisors, and inaction by top government officials to do anything on “the threat” which “grew in urgency” and that “serious action remained unforthcoming”. In fact, as the threat of foreign interference grew, and as elections passed, the whistleblower perceived that these warnings were only being ignored.

Additionally, serious consequences have weighed on the public servant. Worries about family, prison, career were considered but were ultimately weighed against the public interest. Further, a desire to protect any Canadian against coercion by a hostile foreign power gave weight to the whistleblower’s decision to go public – and they expect to eventually be unmasked (“if and when”) for their role in bringing this to light.

It’s important to note that as the source of these stories, this individual does not believe that the government itself would be different had there been no interference by Beijing. Furthermore, that no politician has betrayed their country via the CCP’s meddling. Finally, it is the Chinese diaspora that has borne the brunt of these manipulations and one should conclude that Canada’s institutions should protect them from such an assault.

“Knowing that while what I have done may be unlawful, I cannot say that it was wrong”

It is not known where the whistleblower works – whether at CSIS, the PCO, PMO, or another government department or agency with access to classified information.

Who is the Canadian whistleblower? For now, I get to speculate using the Archer checkpoint model for Stable Diffusion.

Marc Garneau retires from Parliament

Marc Garneau is retiring from Parliament after almost 15 years. The Liberal MP marked his controlled descent onto terra firma in the House of Commons in 2008, elected as a Member of Parliament for the riding of Westmount–Ville-Marie (now Notre-Dame-de-Grace–Westmount) in Montreal. The former astronaut then slogged it out in opposition during Stephen Harper’s rise to a majority government in 2011 – until 2015 when the Liberals formed government under the leadership of Justin Trudeau.

The first Canadian in space launched his bid for the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada against the low payload son of a former Prime Minister in 2012, but aborted when it became clear that Trudeau’s selection by Liberal members was following a single-stage-to-orbit trajectory.

In government, Garneau would go on to serve as Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister of Transport, but eventually found himself on the backbench in a push by the PM to renew the faces in cabinet and for superficial gender balance.

Garneau is a cautionary tale for anyone seeking office while relying on their resume to cement their success as a legislator. Though he had some success in cabinet, the navy captain had perhaps the most impressive credentials of any Parliamentarian, but was eventually jettisoned, with the Prime Minister favouring flash over sustained burn.

The Trudeau government’s style has been heavily focused on image in place of the substantive; it is a government concerned more about how their look will play on social media, rather than how their policy will find its foundation.

The former NASA shuttle mission specialist departs at a time when speculation is growing about the successor to Justin Trudeau.

The former private school teacher turned G7 leader is facing a new scandal in Parliament over the alleged interference of the Chinese Communist government during the 2019 and 2021 Canadian federal elections. Beijing is alleged to have agitated and put resources toward the election of a Canadian government led by Justin Trudeau.

During what may be an election year, it is also during this part of the Parliamentary calendar when those who have options outside of elected life start to seriously consider their escape trajectory. This is especially true for ageing governments whose re-election isn’t as likely today as it was yesterday.

Trudeau is more likely than Garneau to be smarting over the loss of his Tik Tok account – now banned from the devices of Parliamentarians as a security risk posed by China. Indeed, Garneau is certainly a man out of time. As the Prime Minister’s image wanes, we may all yearn for an era of renewed substance.