Stephen Taylor

In a poll released this week by the fair pollsters at Ipsos-Reid, the Liberals appear to be stuck in minority territory since the last poll released. However, the other parties moved slightly (albeit within the margin of error). The Conservatives are up 1% to 27%, NDP down 2% to 15%, Bloc Quebecois down 2% to 10% and the Green Party up 1% to 5%.

In Summary:
Liberals: 38% (+/-0)
Conservatives: 27% (+1)
NDP: 15% (-2)
Bloc: 10% (-2)
Green 5% (+1)

The recent events of the past week have been the Conservative Leadership Convention and the Liberal Budget. The Budget should have provided a boost in support to the Liberals but it provided little for either social spending on one hand or tax cuts/job creation on the other. The election of a new Conservative leader should have also provided a boost in the polls for the Conservative party as stability should be perceived in the new party. However, Mr. Harper was the leader of the official conservative opposition before the merger and now he’s the leader again. The Conservative team will accentuating Mr. Harper’s image as a moderate and as a logical and safe choice for the replacement of the Chrétien/Martin Liberals.

Most interesting, however, is a report today by the National Post which states that in another poll, 53% of Canadians would be undecided voters (or could change their minds) in the next federal election. I don’t remember seeing the undecided numbers so high in recent history. It appears that Canadian confidence in the Liberals has finally been shaken and now Canadians will have to consider other options. In the end, it may come down to a two horse race between the Liberals and the Conservatives as many Liberals see a valid 2nd choice in the Conservative Party. Indeed, a conservative party has always been the choice of Canadians when they’ve been ready to remove the governing Liberals from office.

Further, during election campaigns the Liberals have always lost popular support while the Conservatives have gained it; every election campaign in recent history has been the Liberal’s to lose.

These numbers should be very troubling to Mr. Martin and I’d be surprised and astounded if he thinks that he can bank on apathy this time around as his predecessor, Mr. Chrétien did in 2000.

Canadian democracy appears as if it is starting to come back to life. A competitive democracy is in everyone’s interest after all, for only then is a mandate received a mandate earned.

The Toronto Star has a report this morning about the Liberal strategy for the upcoming election. As I’ve said before, the Liberal strategy is going to be to play Paul Martin. According to the Liberals, the upcoming election is going to be about one thing: the Rt. Hon. Paul Martin. The Liberal Party of Canada will be aiming to capitalize on his apparent title: Right Honourable. The Conservative Party has been attempting to find evidence that Mr. Martin has indeed dipped his hand into the so-called honeypot. For the most part, the Tories have had different levels of success. No smoking gun yet, as they say.

So the Liberals are going to run their front man out-front where he stands 20 points ahead of his embattled party. Starting next week, the PM is to appear in a television ad campaign, to prepare the “down but not out” and “damaged but not busted” “Liberal machine” for the next election which is expected in May or June.

The timing of these advertisements indicate that the Liberals are set to charge right through their scandal before its settled in the minds of the Canadian electorate. The past two weeks of testimony have merely raised more questions than have been answered. Ralph Goodale’s budget even raised revelations of a previously secret $100 million Liberal slush-fund (or honeypot, as Conservative MPs are calling it).

A spring election? How could they!?

Therefore, the Liberal plan is to seek power instead of principle as they ask the Canadian public, not yet informed, for another mandate.

It was a hard fought race with three of us lending our name to our members to choose the next Conservative member from Kingston and the Islands. Blair MacLean, Ron Turley and I spoke to the Conservative membership on Monday night and answered questions as a panel of nomination contestants. In the end Mr. MacLean was elected as our candidate and I am encouraged that our party has choosen this very capable politician for the upcoming battle against the Liberals and their atrocious record of government irresponsibility. I do wish Mr. MacLean the best of luck and with our effort, the grassroots effort, we will have the next Honourable Member from Kingston and the Islands in Mr. Blair MacLean.

I’d like to thank all of you who came out in support and, indeed, I’d like to thank all members and all of the volunteers who made their way out to the Olympic Harbour on Monday to show that, as Conservatives, we are back; our party is the government in waiting.

Paul Martin will drop the writ any day now (incredibly premature in my opinion). For those of you who’d like to help our party defeat the Liberals in the next federal election please email Diane Duttle or myself. With our hard work, we will have Blair MacLean in Ottawa representing Kingston and the Islands.