Author: Stephen Taylor

The French language debate will occur tonight at the National Arts Centre in Ottawa. Stephen Harper, Paul Martin, Jack Layton and Gilles Duceppe will discuss the issues and confront each other before a studio audience and will be watched closely by many in Quebec and elsewhere and by a few Anglophone pundits throughout Canada.

The focus of the debate will be Quebec and Paul Martin will try to claw back lost ground from the frontrunner in that province, Gilles Duceppe.

What they will do:

Paul Martin
Tell Quebec that a Liberal vote is a vote for federalism and a vote for Canada. This will go along with the ‘wrapping-oneself-in-the-flag’ strategy which Martin has used throughout the campaign. Also, he will reiterate that a vote for the Bloc is a whispered vote for the Conservative party. (funny how Martin believes that Bloc values, such as separatism, are preferable to Conservative values).

Gilles Duceppe
Tell Quebeckers that Quebec’s interests can only be represented by the Bloc Quebecois and that the Liberals must be punished. Sovereignty will be mentioned but only in passing.

Jack Layton
Tell Quebeckers that his party represents the Bloc’s values minus separation. Layton will impress in the debate as he is relatively unknown and well-spoken in french.

Stephen Harper
Appeal to Quebec’s desire for decentralization and tout lower taxes. His key message will be that the Sponsorship Scandal is not a Quebec scandal, not a Canadian scandal, but a Liberal scandal. He will not mention military spending unless asked. When attacked on social issues by Martin and by Layton, Harper will mention that democracy is better served by debate than by direction from above (of which, quite frankly, Quebec has had enough)

What they just might do in order to have a good showing:

Paul Martin
Emphasize his Quebec team made up of separatists to emphasize a bridge building effort with nationalists. Lapierre might even get a mention.

Gilles Duceppe
Downplay separatism, a lot. Instead declare that the Bloc is for Quebec’s interests in Canada.

Jack Layton
Aim left and hard. Layton has nothing to lose in Quebec. He might just present himself as the only politician on the ‘true left’ as the Bloc is broadening its base.

Stephen Harper
Suggest to Quebeckers that his Conservatives will form the next government and that he is taking applications from Quebec ridings whom might want to be represented by a cabinet minister. Rhetorically ask Quebeckers whether they would prefer have representatives in government or in opposition. Harper may even coordinate/participate in attacks led by Duceppe to tip that minority balance that much further.

Bottom line
Layton and Harper will be marginalized in this debate but will impress with their French language skills. Although a liberal minority would serve Layton better than a conservative minority, don’t expect Layton to attack Harper in the French language debate as this will appear tangential. Layton’s biggest score will be his demonstration of his capacity in French to English-Canada.

The debate will focus on the two front-runners, Duceppe and Martin with coordinated attacks by Harper and Layton respectively.

The must do
Paul Martin must win this debate and must show significantly better than Gilles Duceppe or his fortunes in the polls will not change and then trend will continue towards a Conservative minority government on June 28th.

The surprise of the evening
Green Party leader Jim Harris will streak across the stage

This morning, my alarm went off at an ungodly hour so that I could get downtown for breakfast with Conservative house leader (and former leader of the official opposition) John Reynolds. Getting up at the seventh hour of day is a challenge for any student but I told myself that it would be a good way to get on a normal person’s schedule.

John Reynolds was to give a speech at the downtown Holiday Inn to supporters to bolster the campaign of local Conservative candidate Blair MacLean. I was running a little late for the 7:30am start, but no matter, these things never start right on time anyways.

As I walked towards the hotel I was greeted by Global National’s Kevin Newman, or rather the superimposed visage of him plastered on the side of the Global Decision Canada bus. I was surprised that Global would be covering the event.

Or so I thought.

One of the reasons why I dragged myself out of bed so early in the morning was to show support, and to show support one helps fill out a room with others for the media (which always seems to underestimate numbers when it comes to Conservative rallies).

There wasn’t even a reporter in the room. No Kevin Newman, not even someone from our local channel CKWS. The Global people were merely staying at the same hotel. So, while Kevin Newman was waiting for his complimentary “what, no bagels?” continental breakfast, John Reynolds was giving his stump speech to the Conservative gathering in the 6th floor conference room. I really don’t blame Newman; it was 7:30 in the morning.

I spoke with Mr. Reynolds (he was sitting at my table). I’ve been involved with the new Conservative party for a while and I’ve been writing about it for almost as long. Sure, we could have chatted about what might be expected (“how ’bout ’em polls?” and “the Liberals must be really worried about their seats” etc. etc.) but I didn’t want to initiate the expected conversation. I did, however, start with something safe (the upcoming debates and how a good performance by Harper should contrast with Paul Martin’s mumbly joe approach very well). But then I came up with something out of left field.

“Jack Layton should also do well in the debate don’t you think?”

I was surprised by the answer. “Yes, he should do quite well. He’s very good in French and the NDP will do better with French voters than they have in the past. It’s good because this time all of the national leaders are fluent in French.” He went on to say that parties have been dogged by that issue in the past.

Off the cuff to an unexpected question, unrehearsed and genuine.

Sure, there are more relevant questions to pose to a Conservative campaigner and the success of the NDP is hardly a topic that’s burning in my mind, but I didn’t want to hear something that I’ve already read, I wanted to hear his opinion. The conservation that followed was actually interesting instead of expected.

So, it was good that politics didn’t put me to sleep this morning, yet I’m a little short of it and I’ll now need to battle through the workday without passing out sometime after lunch.

The Conservative Party of Canada has now surpassed the Liberals nationally by two points. Today we’ve already seen Paul Martin (who was supposed to take the day off) going on the offensive. Jack Layton also weighed in with an attack. The Liberal and NDP strategies have changed; both parties are now aiming at Stephen Harper.

What did Stephen Harper say in response to the attacks?

“What the Liberal Party hasn’t clued into in this election is that nobody believes anything they say. So the more they attack us, the less people believe the attacks.” — Stephen Harper, leader of the Conservative Party of Canada

And what did he say about Jack Layton’s attacks?

Nothing (which was enough)

Expect the Liberal attacks to get more desperate.