Author: Stephen Taylor

Ipsos released a post-debate poll today indicating that the Conservative Party of Canada is on the favourable side of a statistical tie as the numbers indicate that that party has 32% compared to 29% for the Liberals and 16% for the NDP.

The Conservatives seems to be stalled, however, as Liberals continue to fall. Perhaps the Conservative momentum after the debates has been balanced by false negative Liberal attack ads.

The Liberals are at their lowest level of support as they have dropped from 41% from when the election began to the current low at 29%.

It’s still aparent that it’s anyone’s election, however, Paul Martin seems to be riding a downward trend as Stephen Harper needs to present reasons to vote for a Conservative government rather than why one shouldn’t vote Liberal.

Stephen Harper won the debate. Jack Layton, Gilles Duceppe and Harper used Paul Martin as a punching-bag tonight and often times the two on the left did the dirty work for Stephen Harper. The Prime Minister-in-waiting attacked Martin when he needed to and Jack and Gilles backed him up. Stephen Harper won the debate because Paul Martin lost.

Paul Martin looked ill and stumbled around and looked defeated in his post-debate interview. The man looked exhausted.

Harper played the boring and non-threatening man again and Paul Martin’s false attacks on the Conservative leader were effectively rebuffed by Stephen Harper and I believe that the public believed him.

Defining moments of the debate:

Paul Martin was weak when he responded to Layton continuous attacks by saying “Did your advisors tell you to talk all the time?”

Jack Layton kept talking and talking and Paul Martin turned to Harper and asked “Didn’t you have a question for me, Mr. Harper?” Harper ignored Martin’s plea for a lifeline from Jack Layton and let Layton ravage him some more.

Layton accused Paul Martin of arrogance for saying that only two parties can form the government.

Harper slammed Layton for blurring the lines between private delivery and privatization calling them one and same. Maybe he read my post.

Jack Layton co-opted the Green Party policy (taking advantage of the absence of Jim Harris) on investigating the causes of disease instead of just investing more in healthcare.

Stephen Harper said that he and his government will not table legislation that will change a woman’s right to choose.

Martin looked like he desperately wanted to take on Stephen Harper but Jack Layton wouldn’t let him often times in the debate.

Harper to Martin: “our troops had to hitch a ride to Afghanistan, they had to hitch a ride!”

Paul Martin came off stronger than expected

Gilles Duceppe was very effective and looked comfortable

Jack Layton smiled during every syllable he uttered

Stephen Harper was calm, cool and collected

I don’t believe that anyone in particular won or lost the debate. I expected Paul Martin to stutter and to appear lost. He did not do as badly as expected. Gilles Duceppe looked like he commanded the debate. Jack Layton offered positive this and positive that and played to the camera. Stephen Harper held his own.

Notable notables:

• Martin conceded that two parties can form the government (Liberal or Conservative)
• Duceppe immediately declared that this election was not a question of sovereignty (as predicted)
• Harper and Duceppe sparred over Bombardier and ending corporate welfare. Duceppe cited GM in Ontario receiving subsidies while Harper is against corporate handouts
• Harper on Layton: ‘must think he lives on a different planet than Americans’. Layton is against NATO, NAFTA, treaty obligations etc.
• Layton wants to change the system through proportional representation. He believes that this will include more women, minorities and native Canadians
• Duceppe kept referring to the fiscal imbalance which exists between Ottawa and the provinces. Harper was able to score points on this issue while Duceppe lectured Layton slamming him for not serving Quebec’s interests in this respect.
• Everyone but Martin: The Liberals are responsible for the fiscal imbalance
• Martin to Layton: You will massively raise taxes and believe that the government should be responsible for everything
• Harper to Martin: Will you raise taxes to pay for your programs like Dalton McGuinty? You raised taxes 62 times.
• Harper to Duceppe: Bombardier doesn’t need lobbbyists in Ottawa to influence the cabinet. Because of you, Quebeckers cannot replace this government.
• Duceppe to Harper: We’re not responsible for your weekness.
• Harper grouped CSL, Earnscliffe and Groupaction together
• Harper differentiated between privitization and private delivery
• Duceppe, Martin and Layton: The rights of the minority should not be dictated by the voice of the majority
• Harper: The people should decide moral issues and not the courts
• Layton: Called Quebec a nation within a nation

As predicted, Paul Martin did “Tell Quebec that a Liberal vote is a vote for federalism and a vote for Canada. This will go along with the ‘wrapping-oneself-in-the-flag’ strategy which Martin has used throughout the campaign. Also, he will reiterate that a vote for the Bloc is a whispered vote for the Conservative party.”

As predicted, Gilles Duceppe did “Tell Quebeckers that Quebec’s interests can only be represented by the Bloc Quebecois and that the Liberals must be punished. Sovereignty will be mentioned but only in passing.”

Stephen Harper also did “Suggest to Quebeckers that his Conservatives will form the next government and that he is taking applications from Quebec ridings whom might want to be represented by a cabinet minister. Rhetorically ask Quebeckers whether they would prefer have representatives in government or in opposition. Harper may even coordinate/participate in attacks led by Duceppe to tip that minority balance that much further.”

What was unexpected to me was that Gilles Duceppe attacked Stephen Harper more than he attacked Paul Martin. Is this rooted in the latest polls or does Duceppe fear Conservative gains in Quebec?

Low point of the debate: Jack Layton called Quebec a nation within a nation. What is he thinking pandering to separatist votes that he will not get?